SECTIONS

From Existential Angst to Existential Hope

From confronting threats to envisioning a brighter future.

Humanity faces significant risks that could threaten our existence, but there are also reasons for hope. By understanding these existential risks, we can work towards preventing catastrophic outcomes and instead focus on creating a future full of potential and optimism. 

Explore the critical threats under "Existential Risks" and discover the hopeful future scenarios we could get to if we manage to navigate past the threats under "Existential Hope."

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From Existential Angst to Existential Hope
Existential Risks
Existential Hope
ACTIONS

Existential Risks: Facing an Uncomfortable Truth

The Fermi Paradox: Where is Everyone?

  • The Fermi Paradox - Tim Urban. Stick-figure-enhanced explainer on why we’re seemingly alone in a universe that should be teaming with life according to the Drake equation. Forum/blog-post 
  • Dissolving the Fermi Paradox - Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, Toby Ord. Revisits the problem to show that the paradox goes away if we slightly change the assumptions in the Drake equation. Academic paper‍
  • Doomsday Argument, The Anthropic Bias - Nick Bostrom. Explains anthropic reasoning and what our human position in the universe can tell us about our chances for survival. Forum/blog-post

Technological Risk: Small Kills All

  • The Precipice - Toby Ord. A comprehensive book on X-risks with a focus on technological risks, in particular from biotechnology and AGI. Book
  • Managing Existential Risks from Emerging Technologies - Nick Becksted, Toby Ord. A primer on existential risks from technologies. Article
  • The Vulnerable World Hypothesis - Nick Bostrom. On why technological progress may allow a smaller number of people to harm a larger number of people, considering a global monitoring and enforcement regime as a solution. Academic paper
  • Vulnerable World Hypothesis - Robin Hanson. Replies to Bostrom’s proposed solution that a global monitoring and enforcement regime may bring more problems than it solves, itself posing a potential X-risk. Forum/blog-post 
  • The Fragile World Hypothesis - David Manheim. Proposes an inevitable technological fragility based on complex system decay. Article
  • The Risk of Nuclear Weapons - Future of Life Institute. Intro post and link list on nuclear risks. Forum/blog-post 
  • The Doomsday Machine - Daniel Ellsberg. On the risk of nuclear war and its historic mismanagement. Book‍
  • Homo Deus - Yuval Noah Harari. On the risks of emerging technologies altering long-evolved human characteristics and contexts. Book

Coordination Failures: Dreadful Dynamics

  • Inadequate Equilibria - Eliezer Yudkowsky. On how society gets stuck via incentive misalignment for decision-makers, asymmetric information, and suboptimal Nash Equilibria. Moloch’s Toolbox - excerpt introducing the main mechanisms. Book
  • The Future of Human Evolution - Nick Bostrom. On possible negative long-term trajectories for a civilization driven by evolution and competition. Academic paper
  • Coordination Problems in Evolution - Martin Sustrik. A deepdive into the dynamics of the evolution Bostrom discusses. Forum/blog-post 
  • Meditations on Moloch, Growing Children for Bostrom’s Disneyland - Scott Alexander. A classic on coordination problems, including lots of examples, and a future extrapolation of the underlying game theoretic dynamics. “Maybe they would sit back and enjoy their victory, sitting at the top of a pyramid of unknown dozens or hundreds of levels of reality.” Forum/blog-post 
  • Slaying Alexander’s Moloch - Jose Luis Ricon. Explores meta tools to solve some of the coordination problems in Meditations on Moloch. Forum/blog-post 
  • Capturing Gnon And Naive Rationalism - Herlock Sholmes. A critical reply to coordination problems and solutions discussed in Meditations on Moloch. Forum/blog-post 
  • Part 1: Ethics, Now and Tomorrow & Part 2: Racing Where? - Foresight Institute. Debate with Robin Hanson, Paul Christiano, Peter Eckersley, Allison Duettmann, Christine Peterson, Alyssa Vance, and Mark Miller on the trajectory of civilization. Video
  • This is the Dreamtime, Civilization vs. Human Desire, On Value Drift - Robin Hanson. On competitive long-term dynamics shaping our future and our values, focusing on a future of emulated human minds living at subsistence. Forum/blog-post 
  • Poor Folks Do Smile - Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson. A written debate on whether futures with minds living at subsistence levels contain suffering or not. Forum/blog-post 

Existential Angst: The Absurd

  • On Truth and Lies in a Nonmoral Sense - Friedrich Nietzsche. Nietzsche examines the nature of truth, describing it as a human construct and an illusion created by clever animals. He critiques the arrogance of knowledge in a transient universe. Book
  • Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night - Dylan Thomas. Poetry
  • The Myth of Sisyphus - Albert Camus. Camus explores the absurdity of life, focusing on the tension between humanity's desire for meaning and the indifferent universe. He reflects on the inevitability of death, the passage of time, and the futility of living for the future.  Book‍
  • The Absurd - Thomas Nagel. Nagel critiques Camus' response to the absurd, arguing that the recognition of life's absurdity need not lead to anguish or defiance. Instead, he suggests embracing life's cosmic insignificance with irony, viewing it as a natural understanding of human limitations. Academic paper

Existential Hope: Reasons for Optimism

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Our Story: Uncovering a Long History

Progress: Discovering How Far We’ve Come

Long-termism: Exploring A Long Road Ahead

Utopias: Dreaming Big

  • World-building Contest - Future of Life Institute. Contest on building positive future scenarios enabled by AI, including timelines, short stories and media pieces. Website/Blog
  • Deep Utopia - Nick Bostrom. Examines life and meaning in a solved, utopian world. Book
  • Existential Hope Worldbuilding program - Explore worldbuilds showcasing innovative and positive visions of a world with advanced AI in 2045 designed to inspire a hopeful future. Website/Blog.
  • Value Drift & Paretotropia | Robin Hanson & Mark Miller - Foresight Institute. On how, in the face of value diversity, it is desirable to strengthen civilization’s tendency to enable pareto-preferred interactions. Video
  • Paretotopian Goal Alignment - Eric Drexler. On how radical economic growth enabled by technological progress may increasingly support pareto-preferred cooperation and goal alignment in the future. Forum/blog-post 
  • Posts on Raikoth, Archipelago & Atomic Communitarianism - Scott Alexander. A series of blog posts on a rationalist, AI-enabled utopia, and a post on a fictional society defined by a diversity of value-aligned communities that co-exist peacefully. Forum/blog-post 
  • The Adventure: A New Utopia Story - Stuart Armstrong. A longer blog post novella on a utopia where people would actually like to live. Sci-fi content
  • Protopia - Kevin Kelly. Kelly introduces the concept of protopia, a state of incremental progress where small, continuous improvements—like advances in civil rights, democracy, and human welfare—collectively shape a better future. He contrasts this with utopian ideals, emphasizing slow, steady advancements over time. Forum/blog-post 
  • Future Imperfect - David Friedman. A realistic future scenario informed by economics, law, and history that is defined by things gradually improving. Forum/blog-post 
  • Post-Scarcity Civilizations & Cognitive Enhancement | Anders Sandberg - Foresight Institute. On a future step for civilization that is defined by technology-enabled post-scarcity. Video
  • The Fun Sequence, especially Why Eutopia is Scary, Building Weirdtopia - Eliezer Yudkowsky. “This world was ridiculous, and it was going to wake up the neighbors.” Forum/blog-post 
  • Letter from Utopia - Nick Bostrom. Bostrom imagines a future Utopia where concepts like tragedy, suffering, and death persist in subtle, redefined forms, reflecting the remnants of a pre-utopian world. Through poetic contrasts, he explores the philosophical nuances of an ideal society and humanity’s responsibility for its delayed creation. Sci-fi content
  • Characterizing Utopia - Richard Ngo. Characterized utopia according to factors affecting individual lives, relationship with others, humanity over all, and contentious changes. Forum/blog-post 
  • Utopia Links, Visualizing Utopia - Holden Karnofsky. Selected links and visualizations on utopia. Content list
  • Dear Alice - The Line. Solarpunk yogurt commercial clip. Video
  • Utopia - Tyler Alterman. Pinterest board on utopias. Website/Blog
  • Floating Worlds - Robert McCall. Oldie but goldie space opera art. Visuals/Art
  • Why Beautiful Things Make Us Happy - Kurzgesagt. Explainer video on the role of beauty in human lives. Video‍
  • Imaginary Worlds tweet - Edgar Dubourg. Tweet thread on why humans recently started enjoying imaginary utopian worlds. Misc.

Transhumanism & Cosmism: Diving into Futurisms

  • My techno-optimism - Vitalik Buterin. On defense accelerationism and differential technology development. Forum/blog-post 
  • Transhumanist Values - Nick Bostrom. On global security, technological progress, wide access and derivative values required to explore the posthuman realm. Forum/blog-post 
  • Transhumanist Resources - Anders Sandberg. Introducing transhumanism through the individual, global, cultural, technological, and organizational spheres. Forum/blog-post 
  • An Anarchist-Transhumanist Declaration - Kris Notaro. Google doc that combines the principles of anarchism with the principles of transhumanism. Forum/blog-post  
  • The Extropian Principles - Max More. On boundless expansion, self-transformation, dynamic optimism, intelligent technology, and spontaneous order as defining pillars of the extropian mission. Forum/blog-post 
  • Extropy Magazine - Archive containing digital versions of all extropian magazine editions. Website/Blog
  • How the Extropian Quest for Digital Cash Secured Our Tips to the Stars - Aaron van Wirdum. Revisits the role of the extropian community in building the cryptocommerce of today. Article
  • An Archaeological Dig Through The Extropian Archives – Maxwell Tabarrok. Explores the intellectual roots and ideas of the Extropians, a group influential in forming online communities around several conceptual domains like AI, existential risk, and cryptocurrencies. Forum/blog-post 
  • The Russian Cosmists - George Young. History of ideas and key thinkers in cosmism. Book
  • A Cosmist Manifesto - Ben Goertzel. Inspired by the Russian cosmists, this manifesto covers exotic futures defined by AI, nanotechnology, uploading, immortality, and other developments. Manifesto
  • The Terrapunk Manifesto - Nasjaq. From steampunk to cyberpunk to solarpunk to terrapunk. Manifesto
  • Cosmism Foundation - Cosmism Foundation Youtube channel. Recordings of talks from the cosmism conference. Video
  • Panel with Peter Thiel, Aubrey De Grey, Eliezer Yudkowsky - Singularity Summit Youtube channel. Conference recording focused on the role of individual proactivity in shaping the singularity. Video
  • The Singularity is Near, Singularity Q&A - Ray Kurzweil. Early classic on an AI-fueled singularity, and a shorter Q&A on main themes in the book. Book
  • Hopepunk and Solarpunk - Alyssa Hull. An intro to hopepunk and solarpunk. Forum/blog-post 
  • Nine Subgenres to Help You Understand the Future - Jay Owens. Reviews alternative futurisms, including Chinese Sci-Fi, Afrofuturism, Gulf Futurism, Climate Fiction, Solarpunk, Water Crisis Thrillers, Kitchen Sink Dystopia, Woke Space Opera, The New Weird. Forum/blog-post 
  • Flame Wars - Mark Dery. A historical account of cyberpunk futures. Forum/blog-post ‍
  • The World’s Fair Gallery - Art riffing off previous world fairs to create world fair posters about the future. Visuals/Art

Sci-Fi: Fuelled by Imagination

Staying up to date

  • S-risks.org - Introductory posts and further resources on S-Risks. Website/Blog
  • Existential Hope - Foresight Institute Youtube playlist. A collection of interview recordings on positive future visions, strategies, and projects. Video
  • Existential Hope Newsletter - A monthly digest of all things existential hope. Newsletter
  • OurWorldInData - Max Roser. A treasure trove of graphs and explanations on how our world is getting better, and data on remaining large-scale problems. Website/Blog
  • Future Perfect Newsletter - Twice a week, Dylan Mattews, Sigal Samuel, and Kelsey Piper break down the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Newsletter
  • WARP Institute & WARP News - Fact-based optimistic news every Sunday. Newsletter
  • Beautiful News - News website focused on civilizational progress. Website/Blog
  • WIP - Stripe Press blog with guest posts on progress-oriented authors. Website/Blog
  • The Valmy - Collects top episodes from other futurist podcasts. Audio
  • The Lunar Society - Interviews scientists, historians, economists and founders on long-termist ideas. Audio
  • Future of Life Podcast - Interviews researchers and builders focusing on the long-term future. Audio
  • LongNow seminars - Long-termist podcast with seminars curated by Stewart Brand. Audio‍
  • Aleph - Anders Sandberg. Poems, posts, and surrealist visualizations on beautiful futures. Website/Blog

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Organizations and Projects

  • Future of Life Institute - FLI is an independent non-profit working to reduce large-scale, extreme risks from transformative technologies, as well as steer the development and use of these technologies to benefit life. 
  • Forethought Foundation - Aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible. Organizations/projects
  • LongView Philanthropy - Designs and executes bespoke giving strategies for major donors. Our grant recommendations are driven by the conviction that we can use evidence and reason to find the highest-impact opportunities in the world. Organizations/projects
  • Foresight Institute - Supports the beneficial development of high-impact technologies to make great futures more likely. Organizations/projects
  • Center for the Study of Existential Risk - An interdisciplinary research center within the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of risks that could lead to human extinction or civilisational collapse. Organizations/projects
  • Global Catastrophic Risk Institute - A think tank leading research, education, and professional networking on global catastrophic risk. Organizations/projects
  • Global Priorities Institute - Our Vision: A world in which global priorities are set by using evidence and reason to determine what will do the most good. Our Mission: To conduct and promote foundational academic research on how most effectively to do good. Organizations/projects
  • Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative - Our mission is to improve human civilization’s long-term prospects for survival and flourishing. Currently, our main strategy is to take on ethical and legal responsibility, as a collaborator, for projects deemed to be important for reducing existential risk. Organizations/projects
  • Global Challenges Foundation - Aims to promote the development of global decision-making models capable of more effectively and equitably mitigating and, preferably, eliminating the major global catastrophic risks threatening humanity. Organizations/projects
  • Simon Institute - Aims to advance the long-term institutional fit of governments and multilateral organizations. Organizations/projects
  • Innogen Institute - The Innogen Institute produces high quality research and supports the delivery of innovation that is profitable, safe and societally useful. Organizations/projects
  • Open Philanthropy Project - Through research and grantmaking, we hope to learn how to make philanthropy go especially far in terms of improving lives. Organizations/projects
  • Centre for Effective Altruism - Helps to grow and maintain the Effective Altruism movement. Organizations/projects
  • EA Hub - Hub for projects, people, and news on EA. Organizations/projects
  • 80 000 Hours - Information you need to find fulfilling, high-impact careers. Especially the 80,000 Hours Podcast is worth listening to for staying up to date. Organizations/projects
  • Centre for Long-Term Resilience - Think tank with a mission to transform global resilience to extreme risks. Organizations/projects
  • Unsung Hero Award - An award given to individuals who, without having received much recognition at the time, have helped make today dramatically better than it may otherwise have been. Misc.